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Analytical decision making/Financial forecast

Problem/Opportunity Definition

Workflow fails to meet the desired state when shifting management priorities because the shift causes changes in other priorities. The shift usually affects property owners since it creates a setback in which previous workloads are left behind. The situation further contributes to failure to complete assigned work within a specific area and to reach the annual growth target for both that area as well as newly assigned areas. The company is currently seeking ways to establish a more efficient and timely workflow process with the capability of meeting legislated deadlines in a consistent manner throughout the year. This should be achieved while ensuring that the already implemented procedures and quality control are maintained in line with the targeted corporate goal for every individual employee.

Decision Statement

The most suitable solution for addressing the workflow issue in the company is to increase the workforce to effectively handle previous and new workloads simultaneously. This solution is the most appropriate since it had a higher rating among all the probable solutions, and helps in avoiding bottle-necking of workloads, which is the root cause of the workflow issues. To implement this solution, the company should focus on creating a balance between the forces driving change and forces against the change. The company should conduct an evaluation of its workforce needs in relation to existing and potential workloads. Once this evaluation is carried out and workforce needs are identified, the company should assess the potential cost implications of increasing the workforce. This should be followed by embarking on a recruitment process in a cost-effective manner and hiring qualified workers based on existing workforce gaps and needs. After the new workforce is hired, employees should be adequately trained and provided with career development opportunities to enhance their expertise in handling workloads. Finally, management priorities should always be established based on organizational needs, existing and new workloads, and the workforce capabilities.

Module 6
Financial Forecasting
Refer to Module 6 course notes; research the topic online and reference the eBooks
Steps for calculating NPV, maximum exposure, and breakeven:
Step 1: Develop a Cash Flow Diagram (Inflows and Outflows)
Step 2: Discount future cash flows (after year 1)
Step 3: Indicate maximum exposure
Step 4: Indicate breakeven
Financial evaluation:
Step 1: Develop a Cash Flow Diagram (Inflows and Outflows) ? see example below
Cash flow diagram (all dollars in 000s)
TIP: For assignment purposes complete your cash flow table for 5 years (Y1 to Y5)
TIP: If this does not apply to your specific project use your own made-up numbers to illustrate competency
Financial Forecasting
Refer to Module 6 course notes; research the topic online and reference the eBooks
Module 6
Financial evaluation:
Step 2: Discount future cash flows (after year 1)
TIP: For assignment purposes use a discount rate of 10% to keep your calculation simple
Financial Forecasting
Refer to Module 6 course notes; research the topic online and reference the eBooks
Module 6
Financial evaluation:
Step 2: Discount future cash flows (after year 1)
TIP: For assignment purposes use a discount rate of 10% to keep your calculations simple
Module 6
Financial Forecasting
Refer to Module 6 course notes; research the topic online and reference the eBooks
Financial evaluation:
* Above example uses 10% as the discount rate (10% = 0.10; if it was 5% then = 0.05)
-40
Use blue row numbers for formula to calculate red row
-100 -60 +70 +70 =
(1+0.1) (1+0.1) (1+0.1) (1+0.1) (1+0.1) 0 1 2 3 4
+ + + +
-40 -100 -60 +70 +70 =
(1.1) (1.1) 0 1
+ + + +
(1.1) x (1.1) (1.1)x(1.1)x(1.1) (1.1)x(1.1)x(1.1)x(1.1)
-40 -100 -60 +70 +70 =
0 1.1
+ + + +
1.21 1.331 1.4641
= -40 + -91 + -50 + +53 + +48
Step 2: Discount future cash flows (after year 1) [we will only calculate the first 5 years]
NPV = -80 The Net Present Value for a 5 year period will be -80, but if you
calculate it for all 10 years as per the next slide it will be +102
Module 6
Financial Forecasting
Financial evaluation:
Step 4: Indicate breakeven
Module 6
Financial Forecasting
The Net Present Value for a all 10 years will be +102. Yellow highlight +3 indicates breakeven and red highlight
is the maximum exposure
-181 +3
Financial evaluation:
* Above example uses 6% as the discount rate (6% = 0.06; therefore r = 0.06 below the line in the formula)
Step 2: Discount future cash flows (after year 1) [Another example #2]
Module 6
Financial Forecasting
NPV not indicated in the table
Financial evaluation:
* Above example uses 6% as the discount rate (6% = 0.06; therefore r = 0.06 below the line in the formula)
Step 2: Discount future cash flows (after year 1) [Example #3]
TIP: Add the discounted numbers in the table to get to $42,383.52 (this row is missing in the table)
Module 6
Financial Forecasting
PART/Section 3: Detailed Financial evaluation
Financial evaluation:
* Above example uses 6% as the discount rate (8% = 0.08; therefore r = 0.08 below the line in the formula [formula not shown in this example])
Step 2: Discount future cash flows
(after year 1) [Example 4]
Module 6
Steps for calculating NPV, maximum exposure, and breakeven:
Step 1: Develop a Cash Flow Diagram (Inflows and Outflows)
Step 2: Discount future cash flows (after year 1)
Step 3: Indicate maximum exposure
Step 4: Indicate breakeven
TIP: If you have two strong potential solutions you might want to complete financial evaluation on both (which
alternative has the best IRR? Which alternative will give the fastest payback?)
Module 6
Financial Forecasting
Refer to Module 6 course notes; research the topic online and reference the eBooks

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